Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
